“I’m in a position to win. I’m also in a position to stumble,” said Brent Ehrler after taking the lead on Day3 of the 2014 Forrest Wood Cup on Lake Murray.

Two pounds, ten ounces separate the top 5 anglers as we head into the final day of competition.

Ehrler is catching many of his fish early in the day. He feels that bite might be a bit fragile. “I was hoping Thrift would be in the lead so all the boats would follow him,” joked Ehrler. “I’m not sure how all the traffic will affect my early bite.”

Thrift said he would be fine with the lead. “I’d rather have the lead any day. It’s so tight between 6 or 7 guys. Somebody is going to have to catch a big bag. The way the lake is fishing right now, the guy in 10^th could catch 18 pounds and it’s not out of the question to think all of the leaders could stumble. It makes it fun for everybody,” chuckled Thrift.

A sign in the store at Dreher Island state park nailed it. The hand-written fishing report read: “Bass – slow to fair. Topwaters early. Worms along the bank.”

As details emerge, we’re learning that this simple plan of attack has led many of our top pros into the final 10 cut.

Clearly, topwater lures are drawing most of the big bites. “I wish I had picked up the buzzbait and never put it down,” said reigning Angler of the Year, Andy Morgan. Morgan brought 3-12 to the scale and fell out of the cut.

“Stay positive. Stay focused. Fish Clean. And get blessed to catch a big fish.” That, says Scott Canterbury, is the game plan tomorrow. Most pros would agree.

Canterbury wrestled the lead from local favorite Casey Ashley only to give it up by 1 ounce when local pro Anthony Gagliardi weighed-in.

Gagliardi was soon overtaken by semi-local Bryan Thrift of Shelby, NC.

Then somebody from way out of the neighborhood took the lead – Brent Ehrler brought 13-05 for a 3-day total weight of 39-01.

It’s a tight race and local knowledge is going a long way, but Ehrler has been the most consistent man so far. His 13-05 today matches his 13-05 from Thursday. He sandwiched a 12-07 effort in between those two limits. It makes him hard to bet against tomorrow, but Ehrler only holds a lead of 3 ounces over Thrift.

While Ehrler’s weights have been steadier, Thrift has been consistent in his approach to the tournament. Today his results were better than on Friday. “I did the same thing today. I just got my topwater bites to hook up and got them all in the boat today. Yesterday I had the same amount of bites. Today they ate it good. I had a couple more big ones follow it that never tried to bite it. I’m going to go out tomorrow and do the same thing. The only chance I’ve got to win this tournament is I’ve got to catch all 5 of my fish on topwater. If I’ve got to go to my little limit spot, the best I’m going to do on it is 10 pounds. I’ve got to get 5 on that topwater.”

Gagliardi has been starting with a topwater bite down lake each morning and then he has caught a key fish each day, including a pair of 5-pounders, from isolated shallow brush on the other end of the lake to bump his weight up – an apparent departure from the ‘big bass on topwater’ rule espoused by most successful pros this week.

“I’ve not caught a lot of numbers of fish but the thing I’ve caught more fish on is definitely the topwater bite out over that deeper water and that’s not where my bigger fish have come from, but at the same time, that’s where bigger fish can come from,” said Gagliardi. “Maybe my numbers game turns into my big fish pattern tomorrow.”

Gagliardi has options afforded him by his years of experience on Lake Murray and his experiences here this week. “There are a couple of different directions I could go and what’s crazy is they are bipolar opposites,” said Gagliardi. “I could start on one end of the lake and feel comfortable or I think I could start on the other and feel just as comfortable. The weather will probably play some role in the decision I make as to what I do tomorrow.”

Ashley is banking on the shallow topwater action. “I’m starting off the day catching them shallow. I’m catching most of my fish on topwater. That’s how you’re going to catch a big one here. That’s how it will be won.”

Your Top 10 looks like this:

1        BRENT EHRLER  REDLANDS, CA  13-5 (5)       12-7 (5)       25-12 (10)   13-5 (5)       0-0 (0)         39-1 (15)    

2        BRYAN THRIFT  SHELBY, NC        14-9 (5)       10-7 (5)       25-0 (10)   13-14 (5)     0-0 (0)         38-14 (15)  

3        ANTHONY GAGLIARDI        PROSPERITY, SC          13-2 (5)          10-3 (4)       23-5 (9)       13-15 (5)     0-0 (0)         37-4 (14)    

4        SCOTT CANTERBURY SPRINGVILLE, AL        10-0 (4)       11-3 (5)          21-3 (9)       16-0 (5)       0-0 (0)         37-3 (14)    

5        CASEY ASHLEY DONALDS, SC     9-0 (5)         11-14 (5)     20-14 (10)   15-9 (5)       0-0 (0)         36-7 (15)    

6        MATT HERREN   ASHVILLE, AL    10-4 (5)       10-14 (5)     21-2 (10)   11-15 (5)     0-0 (0)         33-1 (15)    

7        MICHAEL WOOLEY     COLLIERVILLE, TN      9-8 (4)         14-12 (5)     24-4 (9)       8-9 (3)         0-0 (0)         32-13 (12)  

8        SCOTT MARTIN  CLEWISTON, FL 13-6 (5)       7-8 (5)         20-14 (10)   11-9 (5)       0-0 (0)         32-7 (15)    

9        JACOB WHEELER         INDIANAPOLIS, IN      12-5 (5)       11-13 (4)     24-2 (9)       7-2 (3)         0-0 (0)         31-4 (12)    

10      STEVE KENNEDY        AUBURN, AL       9-13 (5)       9-15 (5)          19-12 (10)   10-9 (5)       0-0 (0)         30-5 (15)